Predicting the Future

from Able Leader, August 2002

by Steve Kaye

Leaders imagine the future.

From this they develop the goals and strategies that take them forward.

Here are three techniques that will help you imagine the future.

1) Extrapolate Trends

Study the history of your industry, seeking trends or patterns. For example, how have things changed during the past decades? Can you identify changes in scale, emphasis, rate, value, interest, or perception? How have customer expectations, standards, and requirements shifted? How have designing, building, promoting, selling, shipping, receiving, installing changed?

Next, estimate when these changes occurred. And then draw a plot of the changes versus time. This will indicate where your industry may be going. Use this plot to plan how you must operate in the future.

2) Nibble Outward

Take out four sheets of paper. On the top of each page write one of the following titles: One Year, Two Years, Five Years, 20 Years. (Of course, you can use any timeframe and any number of pages.)

Beginning with “One Year” describe what your business will be like at that time. Provide as much detail as possible. Answer questions such as who are your customers, what are you selling, how are you selling it, what is your staff doing, and how are you spending your time. The more detail you provide, the better.

After you describe your business a year from now, fill in the other pages, describing your business in each timeframe. Admittedly, you will have to use increasing amounts of imagination the farther out you go.

3) Imagine Shifts

Consider the current situation in your business. Then ask yourself how it must evolve to meet trends in society, business, and the economy. For example, if society is expecting more results, sooner, how must your business change to meet that expectation? Your answers to such questions will indicate how you must change.

In General

While writing your answers, think openly, be creative, and suspend judgment. Recognize that it is more important to capture your ideas on paper then it is to evaluate them. Once you complete writing, then you can review what you’ve written, evaluate it, and prioritize the possibilities based on the likelihood that they may occur.

Key Point: Predicting the future is an essential activity for every leader. Use these tools to imagine forward so that you can take your company there.

Much success,

Steve Kaye
714-528-1300